Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Preview: Ligue 1 Stats
· 2 min read
Le Havre welcome Paris Saint Germain to Ligue 1 action on Friday 30 October 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 18:00 GMT. Both sides have played 8 matches so far this season, but they head into this fixture in very different run of form.
Form and goals
Le Havre's recent form reads DLLLL, highlighting a difficult period for the home side. Across their home fixtures so far, they have struggled to find the net, scoring an average of just 0.5 goals per home game. Defensively, they have conceded 1.5 goals per home match, keeping only 1 clean sheet overall this season. Their expected goals (xG) figure sits at 0.85.
Paris Saint Germain arrive with contrasting form, recording five consecutive wins (WWWWW) in their last 5 outings. On the road, they have averaged 2 goals scored per away game while conceding 1.2 per match. They also have 1 clean sheet to their name, backed by an expected goals (xG) average of 1.75.
What the numbers suggest
Probability estimates based on the season's data give Paris Saint Germain the upper hand, calculated at 59% for an away win. A draw is estimated at 23%, while a Le Havre win sits at 18%.
In the goal markets, probabilities suggest a strong tendency for at least a couple of strikes, with over 1.5 goals rated at 73%. However, expectations drop closer to an even split for higher thresholds: over 2.5 goals is calculated at 48%, and both teams to score (BTTS) sits at 47%. The single likeliest scoreline generated by the data model is 0-1, pointing towards a narrow win for the visitors.
Remember that these figures and probabilities are simply statistical estimates of past tendencies rather than guarantees of how the 90 minutes will unfold.
Key takeaway
While football is unpredictable, the underlying statistics point clearly in favour of Paris Saint Germain given their strong away scoring record and Le Havre's recent struggles in front of goal.
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