Lille vs Lens Preview: Ligue 1 Stats
· 2 min read
Lille welcome Lens to Ligue 1 action on Friday 30 October 2026, with kickoff set for 20:05 GMT. Both sides have played 8 matches so far this season and approach this fixture with contrasting recent form and distinct statistical profiles.
Form and goals
Looking at the recent results, Lille's last five matches read WLWDD, showing a solid mix of points earned. Lens come into this fixture on stronger recent momentum with form reading DLWWW.
When playing at home, Lille average 1.5 goals scored per game while keeping things relatively tight at the back, conceding 0.8 goals per home fixture. They have managed 2 clean sheets overall this term.
On the road, Lens show a more open profile. They score an average of 1.8 goals per away game, but their defence has leaked at the same rate, conceding 1.8 goals per away match. They are yet to keep a clean sheet in their 8 games.
What the numbers suggest
Our statistical model points to some clear tendencies for this match, though these are estimates rather than certainties. Expected goals figures sit at 1.65 for Lille and 1.3 for Lens.
In terms of match outcomes, our probability model estimates a 46% chance of a Lille win, a 24% probability of a draw, and a 30% likelihood of an away win for Lens. The data also leans towards goals: there is a 79% estimated probability for over 1.5 goals and a 57% chance for over 2.5 goals. Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at a 59% probability. Among specific scorelines, a 1-1 draw emerges as the likeliest score based on the data.
Key takeaway
While Lens bring strong winning momentum into this game, Lille's defensive solidity at home keeps them as favourites in the model. For those weighing up the markets, the API advice leans towards a double chance selection of Lille or draw.
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