Napoli vs AS Roma Match Preview and Stats
· 2 min read
Napoli welcome AS Roma in Serie A on Saturday 24 October 2026, with kickoff set for 16:00 GMT. Both sides have played seven matches so far this season, and this clash brings together two teams with contrasting recent momentum and defensive records.
Form and goals
Napoli head into this fixture with a mixed run of results in their last five matches, recording two wins, one draw, and two defeats (LWDWL). Across their home fixtures this season, Napoli have averaged 1.7 goals scored per game while conceding 0.7. They have managed two clean sheets overall.
AS Roma arrive in stronger form, unbeaten in their last five outings with three wins and two draws (WWDDW). On their travels, Roma have been particularly impressive, scoring an average of 2.0 goals per away game while yet to concede a single goal away from home (0.0 conceded per away game). They have recorded three clean sheets in total.
Expected goals data points to Roma holding an edge in chance creation, with an expected goals figure of 1.35 compared to Napoli's 0.85.
What the numbers suggest
Statistical models and probability estimates offer a guide to how this encounter might unfold, though these are tendencies rather than certainties. Based on the underlying data, the model calculates a 48% probability for an AS Roma win, with a 28% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of a Napoli victory.
In the goal markets, the numbers point towards a tighter affair. The probability for over 1.5 goals stands at 65%, but this drops to 38% for over 2.5 goals. Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at a 42% likelihood, reflecting Roma's strong defensive record on the road. The most likely single scoreline in the model is 0-1 to the visitors, while analytical advice leans towards a double chance of a draw or AS Roma win combined with under 3.5 goals.
Key takeaway
AS Roma's formidable away defence and strong recent form give them the upper hand in the model's estimations, but football matches are decided on the pitch rather than spreadsheets. Napoli will be keen to use home advantage to disrupt Roma's momentum.
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