Arsenal vs Everton Match Preview & Statistics
· 2 min read
Arsenal face Everton in the Premier League on Saturday 24 October 2026, with kickoff set for 14:00 GMT. Both sides have played seven matches so far this season, and our statistical model breaks down how the fixture might unfold based on their early performances.
Form and goals
Arsenal head into this match with strong home form, reflected in their recent results sequence of WWLWW. When playing at home, the Gunners have averaged 2.3 goals scored per game while conceding just 0.7. Their defensive solidity is further highlighted by keeping one clean sheet across their fixtures.
Everton arrive with a more mixed run of form, showing DDWDL from their last five outings. On their travels, the Toffees have averaged 1.0 goal scored per away match and conceded 1.0 per game. Like their hosts, Everton have managed one clean sheet so far.
What the numbers suggest
Looking at the underlying metrics, Arsenal's expected goals (xG) figure sits at 1.65, compared to Everton's 0.85.
Our probability model estimates a 56% chance of a home win, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 19% chance of an away win. These figures are simply estimates based on available data rather than guarantees. In the goal markets, the model assigns a 71% probability to over 1.5 goals, while both over 2.5 goals and both teams to score (BTTS) sit at 46%. The single likeliest scoreline generated by the data is a 1-0 win for Arsenal.
For those weighing up different markets, the API advice leans towards a double chance selection of Arsenal or draw.
Key takeaway
Arsenal's superior home scoring record and higher expected goals suggest they hold the upper hand statistically. However, football remains unpredictable, and Everton have shown they can frustrate opponents on the road.
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